Holiday Surge, Higher Risk: What High-Risk Businesses Can Learn from Seasonal Fraud Trends

The Holiday Boom Comes with Hidden Risks

’Tis the season for sales, and scams. As consumers rush to grab deals, fraudsters rush even faster to exploit the surge in online transactions.

Recent data from Mastercard and The Harris Poll revealed that while 41% of global shoppers claim to be more cautious online during the holidays, nearly half admit they’d still ignore obvious security warnings for a deep discount or rare item.

That same impulse, choosing convenience or profit over caution, is where high-risk businesses often falter too. The 2025 festive surge offers not just revenue opportunities but also amplified cyber, payment, and compliance threats for merchants in high-risk sectors.

The Season of Opportunity and Exploitation

For industries like iGaming, adult entertainment, nutraceuticals, or subscription-based platforms, holiday seasons often mean traffic spikes, bonus campaigns, and flash deals. But the same factors that drive conversions also open the door to:

• Synthetic identity fraud (fake users making large purchases or creating accounts)

• Chargeback abuse from impulsive buyers seeking post-purchase refunds

• Affiliate fraud through false referrals or traffic manipulation

• Card testing and transaction laundering via sudden transaction surges

According to Mastercard, 32 million risk events are monitored daily, and generative AI scams are growing, showing that automation has scaled not only business operations but also fraudulent behavior.

Key Lessons for High-Risk Businesses

The high-risk ecosystem must learn from consumer fraud data and evolve beyond basic prevention tools. Below are actionable insights high-risk businesses can apply from Mastercard’s findings.

1. Fraudsters Exploit Human Behavior, Not Just Systems

Nearly half of surveyed consumers admit to ignoring red flags for a good deal. Similarly, high-risk merchants sometimes rush to approve questionable transactions during sales spikes.

Lesson: Don’t loosen fraud controls during promotional periods. Instead, configure AI-driven fraud filters that adjust dynamically, approving genuine customers while flagging anomalies like mismatched IPs, BINs, or high transaction velocity.

2. Unverified Platforms Invite Reputational Risk

Just as 72% of consumers still shop on unfamiliar websites, acquirers and PSPs increasingly flag high-risk merchants operating on unverified domains or using outdated compliance measures.

Lesson: Ensure your platform passes every underwriting and KYC checkpoint, verified SSL certificates, PCI DSS compliance, clear refund and privacy policies. Regulators and acquirers are now scrutinizing these details as signals of legitimacy.

3. Real-Time Monitoring Is Your Strongest Defense

Mastercard stopped $50 billion in fraud over the past three years using real-time monitoring and AI. High-risk merchants must adopt a similar stance, combining automation with human oversight.

Lesson: Invest in fraud orchestration systems that monitor chargebacks, success rates, and risky geographies in real time. Tools like BIN blocking, GEO filtering, and device fingerprinting can significantly cut fraud attempts.

4. Education Prevents Escalation

Consumers fall for fake delivery alerts and malware-filled QR codes because of ignorance, not negligence. Similarly, many internal fraud losses in high-risk businesses occur due to untrained teams.

Lesson: Make sure your ops and risk teams know what to look for—odd traffic behavior, the same address popping up across multiple orders, or affiliates requesting unusual payouts. Spotting it early saves revenue.

PayConsults’ Perspective: Turning Holiday Risk into Resilience

At PayConsults, we help high-risk businesses transform risk season into growth season through:

• Fraud prevention strategies powered by AI and data analytics

• Multi-PSP orchestration to distribute risk across acquirers

• VAMP (Visa Acquirer Monitoring Program) optimization to keep chargeback ratios compliant

• Real-time monitoring dashboards to identify emerging threats

Our goal is simple: to ensure your payment ecosystem remains resilient, even when fraudsters ramp up.

Stay Festive, Stay Vigilant

The holiday surge doesn’t just bring sales; it brings scrutiny. As consumers make impulsive purchases, fraudsters exploit chaos, and high-risk merchants are prime targets.

By investing in data-driven fraud controls, transparent communication, and smart orchestration, you can turn risk into reliability.

At PayConsults, we help merchants do exactly that, keeping your payment stack secure while your revenue sleighs this season.